JAKARTA: The weaker outlook for the global economy coupled with the phasing out of fiscal and monetary stimulus within the region suggests economic growth in East Asia should moderate next year, Asian Development Bank (ADB) said in the latest report.ADB's Asia Economic Monitor says that average growth in emerging East Asia is likely to be 7.3% in 2011 after growing 8.8% in 2010. In its Asian Development Outlook 2010 Update, published in September, ADB had predicted growth of 8.4% for the region this year after a 5.2% expansion in 2009. The 2010 upgrade was in large part due to the faster-than-expected growth in the PRC which ADB now sees at 10.1% this year. That is higher than its previous forecast of 9.6% in September. ADB still expects the PRC economy to expand 9.1% in 2011.In a separate special note reassessing the overall performance of developing Asia - that is, 45 developing economies of Central Asia, East Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific - ADB upgraded its 2010 forecast to 8.6% from the 8.2% it forecast in September. The 2011 forecast for developing Asia is still 7.3%.Growth in Central Asia is now forecast at 5.9% this year, against a previous forecast of 5.1%. ADB still expects the economies of South Asia to expand 7.8% in 2010, with the Indian economy set to grow 8.5%. Southeast Asia will grow 7.5% in 2010, up from the 7.4% forecast in September. The forecast for the economies of the Pacific remains the same at 4.3% in 2010.The V-shaped recovery has run its course in emerging East Asia and the challenge for the region is to put in place national policies that will translate swift recovery into long-term growth," said Mr. Azis.Risks to the outlook for the region are also higher than they were six months ago. Policy challenges stem from the relatively weak recovery in advanced economies, potentially destabilizing capital inflows, inflation and asset price bubbles in some countries, and protectionism. (NOM)
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